AI Villain Vs Cybersecurity Hero

 

Timeline of Cyber Incidents and Their Economic Costs (2000-2031)

This timeline highlights key findings and projections regarding the economic impact of cyber incidents as presented in the provided sources.

Early 2000s:

• 1996-2000 (US): Limited evidence of overall negative stock market effects from information security breaches, though breaches involving unauthorized access to confidential data show significant impact (Campbell et al., 2003).
• 1996-2001 (US): Firms lose an average of 2.1% of their market value within two days of a cybersecurity breach announcement (Cavusoglu, 2004).
• 1996-2002 (US): All IT security breaches yield negative market returns; credit card theft (9-15%) and DoS incidents (1-4%) have the most significant impact (Garg et al., 2003).
• 1997-2002 (US): Companies relying on websites for business operations experience negative stock market returns following DoS attacks; non-internet specific companies do not (Hovav and D’Arcy, 2003).
• 1997-2003 (US): No significant negative market returns to information security breach announcements (Kannan et al., 2007).
• 1997-2008 (US): Firms disclosing risk-mitigating information in financial reports are less likely to have incidents and are punished less severely by the market when breaches occur (Wang et al., 2013).
• 1999-2006 (US): A significantly negative but short-lived stock market effect is observed for privacy breach events (Acquisti et al., 2006).

2010s:

• 2002-2018 (US): Large data breaches are associated with a 5-9% loss of reputational intangible capital or brand value (Makridis, 2021).
• 2004 (US): Privacy Rights Clearinghouse (PRC) begins providing open data on public cyber breaches by government entities, becoming a key data source for academic studies.
• 2005-2016 (US): Firms experience a 1.5–1.9% reduction in cumulative abnormal returns in 30 days after a breach; higher pre-event investment in corporate social responsibility reduces losses (Akey et al., 2021).
• 2005-2016 (US): Corporate bond values decrease following a breach announcement, with bondholders losing approximately 2% of wealth within one month (Iyer et al., 2020).
• 2005-2017 (US): Disclosure of a cyberattack significantly reduces shareholder wealth and sales growth; shareholder wealth decreases by 1.09% within 3 days (Kamiya et al., 2021).
• 2005-2017 (US): Sales growth for large firms, especially in retail, declines significantly for 3 years after a cyberattack (Kamiya et al., 2021).
• 2005-2017 (US): Firms hold more cash after a cyberattack; suppliers and unaffected peer firms also increase cash holdings (Garg, 2020).
• 2005-2018 (US): Cumulative abnormal returns of breached firms decrease by 0.46% within 5 days of a breach (Piccotti and Wang, 2022).
• 2005-2018 (US): Hackers initiate informed trading up to 12 months prior to data breach announcements in options markets; insiders initiate 4 months prior (Piccotti and Wang, 2022).
• 2005-2018 (US): Abnormal trading activity before breach announcements suggests short sellers exploit insider knowledge (Wang et al., 2022).
• 2008-2019 (US): Firms with higher cybersecurity risk outperform others in regular times, but incur large losses after a breach disclosure (Florackis et al., 2023).
• 2010-2015 (US): Managers disclose cyberattack information when investors already suspect high probability; withheld (disclosed) attacks associated with 2.6% (0.7%) decrease in equity values (Amir et al., 2018).
• 2011 (UK): UK government estimates cybercrime costs USD 33.67 billion (1.3% of GDP), with businesses bearing 77.78% (UK Cabinet Office, 2011).
• 2011-2016 (US): Insider trading occurs 55-72 days before breach announcements, saving insiders an average of USD 35,000 (Lin et al., 2020). Stock prices decrease by 1.18% in a 3-day window, 1.44% in a 5-day window, 1.26% in a 21-day window, and 1.44% in a 41-day window after a breach announcement (Lin et al., 2020).
• 2011-2020 (Global): The rise of cybercrime is positively correlated with the performance of cybersecurity companies (Lhuissier and Tripier, 2021).
• 2012-2018 (Global): Hacking campaigns increase target institutions' exposure to the deep and dark web by 62% per year during the first two years after the campaign's start (Keppo and Niemela, 2021).
• 2014 (Ireland): Total cost of cybercrime in Ireland is USD 695.5 million (Grant Thornton, 2021).
• 2015 (Brazil): Cybercrime costs in Brazil estimated at around USD 8 billion (0.4% of GDP).
• 2015 (Global): Cybercrime damage costs are USD 3 trillion (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• 22016 (Kenya): Cybercrime costs the Kenyan economy USD 36 million (0.05% of GDP) (Interpol, 2016).
• 2016 (South Africa): Cybercrime costs the South African economy USD 573 million (0.17% of GDP) (Interpol, 2016).
• 2016 (Nigeria): Cybercrime costs the Nigerian economy USD 500 million (0.12% of GDP) (Interpol, 2016).
• 2017 (Global): Consumers worldwide lose USD 172 billion due to cybercrime (Norton, 2017).
• 2017 (Global): Enterprises incur an average direct cost of USD 551,000 to recover from a security breach; SMBs face USD 38,000 (Kaspersky Lab & B2B, 2017).
• June 2017 (Ukraine): The NotPetya attack, a major cyberattack, occurs (Crosignani et al., 2023).
• 2017-2018 (Global): NotPetya causes at least USD 7.3 billion in losses by affected customers, four times larger than direct losses (Crosignani et al., 2023).
• 2017 (Global): Ransomware damages surge to USD 5 billion, a 15-fold jump from 2015 (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• 2017-2021 (Global): Average cost of a ransomware incident is USD 623,000 for SMEs and USD 29.6 million for large companies (NetDiligence, 2022). Ransomware incidents make up 87% of claims with a business interruption (BI) component for SMEs (NetDiligence, 2022).
• 2018 (Global): Global cost of cybercrime increases to USD 600 billion (McAfee & Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2018).
• 2018 (Germany): Over half of all German companies victims of cybercrime, causing damages of over USD 64 billion per year (McAfee & Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2018).
• 2018 (Global): Ransomware damages projected to reach USD 8 billion (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• 2018-2019 (Global): Ransomware infections decrease by over 20% overall, but enterprise detections rise by 12% (Symantec, 2019).
• 2019 (Global): Ransomware damages projected to reach USD 11.5 billion (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• 2019 (Global): Average cost of a cyber claim rises to USD 369,000 (Willis Towers Watson, 2020). Ransomware events increase significantly due to low investment, low risk, high reward (Willis Towers Watson, 2020).
• By 2024 (Global): Companies face the risk of losing an estimated USD 5.2 trillion in value creation opportunities from the digital economy due to cyberattacks (Accenture & Ponemon Institute, 2019).

2020s and Projections:

• 2020 (Ireland): Cost of cybercrime dramatically increases to USD 10.5 billion (Grant Thornton, 2021).
• First half of 2020 (Ireland): Irish consumers lose over USD 13.2 million to debit and credit card fraud (Grant Thornton, 2021).
• 2020 (Global): Average time to identify and contain a cybersecurity breach is 280 days, with an average cost of nearly USD 4 million in losses and remediation (CheckPoint – Software Technologies LTD, 2021).
• 2020 (Africa): More than 90% of African businesses operate without proper cybersecurity protocols (CGTN, 2020).
• 2021 (Africa): Cybercrime reduces Africa’s GDP by more than 10%, amounting to an estimated loss of USD 4.12 billion (Phys.org, 2021).
• 2021 (Global): Ransomware damages projected to reach USD 20 billion (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• 2021 (Global): Average cost of a data breach for SMEs is USD 105,000; for enterprises, it falls to USD 927,000 (Kaspersky Lab, 2021).
• 2021 (Global): Cybersecurity budgets for enterprises drop significantly by 19% (USD 14 million to USD 11.4 million); SMBs experience a minor decrease of 3% (USD 275,000 to USD 267,000) (Kaspersky Lab, 2021).
• 2021 (US): The U.S. Secret Service prevents over USD 2.3 billion in economic losses from cyber incidents in the previous fiscal year (Verizon, 2022).
• 2022 (Global): Average data breach cost reaches an all-time high of USD 4.35 million, a 2.6% increase from 2021 (IBM, 2022). Healthcare breach costs reach a record high of USD 10.10 million (IBM, 2022).
• 2022 (Global): Ransomware breach costs slightly decrease to USD 4.54 million from USD 4.62 million in 2021, but occurrence increases by 11% (IBM, 2022).
• 2022 (Global): Fully deployed security AI and automation associated with significantly lower average breach costs (USD 3.15 million) compared to organizations without these measures (USD 6.20 million) (IBM, 2022).
• 2022 (Global): Ransomware dominates the threat landscape, doubling the volume of attacks from 2021 and resulting in an estimated total cost exceeding USD 20 billion (Cybereason, 2022).
• 2023 (Projection): Annual global cost of cybercrime predicted to reach USD 8 trillion (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• By 2025 (Projection): Global cybercrime damage costs projected to reach USD 10.5 trillion annually (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022). Crypto crime worldwide estimated to reach USD 30 billion per year (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).
• By 2031 (Projection): Ransomware attacks expected to cause damages of approximately USD 265 billion per year (eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures, 2022).

Cast of Characters

This list includes individuals identified as authors or contributors to the academic and industry reports cited in the provided sources.

• Estefania Vergara Cobos: Economist at the Infrastructure Chief Economist Office, World Bank. Co-author of "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents."
• Selcen Cakir: Assistant Professor of Economics at Bogazici University. Co-author of "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents."
• Stephane Straub: Acknowledged for comments and support on "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents."
• Christine Zhenwei Qiang: Acknowledged for comments and support on "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents."
• Casey Torgusson: Acknowledged for comments and support on "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents."
• Gordon, L. A.: Co-author of multiple academic papers cited in the review, including "The economic cost of publicly announced information security breaches: empirical evidence from the stock market" (2003) and "Integrating cost–benefit analysis into the NIST Cybersecurity Framework via the Gordon–Loeb Model" (2020), focusing on the economics of information security investment.
• Loeb, M. P.: Co-author with Gordon on various works, contributing to the understanding of economic costs and cybersecurity investments.
• Romanosky, S.: Co-author of "Content analysis of cyber insurance policies: How do carriers price cyber risk?" (2019) and "Examining the costs and causes of cyber incidents" (2016), researching cyber insurance and incident costs.
• U.S. CISA: The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Referenced for reports on the cost of cyber incidents.
• Corbet, S.: Co-author of "What the hack: Systematic risk contagion from cyber events" (2019), exploring systemic risk in financial markets due to cyber events.
• Gurdgiev, C.: Co-author with Corbet on the systemic risk of cyber events.
• Jamilov, R.: Co-author of "The anatomy of cyber risk" (2021), investigating firm-level cyber risk as a source of systematic risk.
• Amir, E.: Co-author of "Do firms underreport information on cyber-attacks? Evidence from capital markets" (2018), examining firms' disclosure behaviors regarding cyberattacks.
• Akey, P.: Co-author of "Hacking corporate reputations" (2021), studying the impact of data breaches on corporate reputations and social responsibility.
• Kamiya, S.: Lead author on "Risk management, firm reputation, and the impact of successful cyberattacks on target firms" (2021), which builds a model of optimal cybersecurity risk and analyzes sales growth after attacks.
• Lending, C.: Co-author of "Corporate governance, social responsibility, and data breaches" (2018), linking governance and social responsibility to data breaches.
• Piccotti, L. R.: Co-author of "Informed trading in the options market surrounding data breaches" (2022), investigating insider trading activities prior to breach announcements.
• Wang, H. E.: Co-author with Piccotti and others on papers discussing informed trading and market reactions to breaches.
• Lin, Z.: Lead author of "Insider trading ahead of cyber breach announcements" (2020), detailing the financial gains from insider trading before breach disclosures.
• Tosun, O. K.: Author of "Cyber-attacks and stock market activity" (2021), analyzing the short and long-term effects of cyberattacks on stock market value.
• Campbell, K.: Lead author of "The economic cost of publicly announced information security breaches: empirical evidence from the stock market" (2003), an early empirical study on cyber breach impact.
• Hovav, A.: Co-author of "The impact of denial‐of‐service attack announcements on the market value of firms" (2003), focusing on DoS attacks.
• D'Arcy, J.: Co-author with Hovav on the impact of DoS attacks.
• Acquisti, A.: Lead author of "Is there a cost to privacy breaches? An event study" (2006), analyzing the stock market effects of privacy breaches.
• Garg, A.: Lead author of "Quantifying the financial impact of IT security breaches" (2003), examining different types of IT security breaches.
• Goldstein, J.: Lead author of "An event study analysis of the economic impact of IT operational risk and its subcategories" (2011), comparing function-related and data-related failures.
• Makridis, C. A.: Author of "Do data breaches damage reputation? Evidence from 45 companies between 2002 and 2018" (2021), quantifying reputational loss from breaches.
• Iyer, S. R.: Lead author of "Cyberattacks and impact on bond valuation" (2020), examining the effect of breaches on corporate bonds.
• Garg, P.: Author of "Cybersecurity breaches and cash holdings: Spillover effect" (2020), demonstrating how firms and their suppliers adjust cash holdings after breaches.
• Crosignani, M.: Lead author of "Pirates without borders: The propagation of cyberattacks through firms’ supply chains" (2023), studying the ripple effects of attacks like NotPetya.
• Kotidis, Antonis: Co-author of "Cyberattacks and Financial Stability: Evidence from a Natural Experiment" (2022), analyzing a multi-day cyberattack's impact on financial stability.
• Schreft, Stacey L.: Co-author with Kotidis on the financial stability effects of cyberattacks.
• Burgard, M.: Author of "Cyber Incident Response: The Real Cost of Not Having a Plan or Cyber Insurance" (2021), providing estimates for incident response costs.
• Bose, I.: Co-author of "The impact of adoption of identity theft countermeasures on firm value" (2013).
• Leung, A. C. M.: Co-author with Bose on identity theft countermeasures.
• Florackis, C.: Lead author of "Cybersecurity risk" (2023), showing how cybersecurity risk is priced in equity.
• Woods, D.W.: Co-author on several papers (2019, 2021) focusing on quantifying cyber harm estimates, effectiveness of security interventions, and the role of insurance.
• Böhme, R.: Co-author with Woods on quantifying cyber risk.
• Facchinetti, S.: Lead author of "Cyber risk measurement with ordinal data" (2020), suggesting alternative reporting methods for cyberattacks.
• Lhuissier S.: Co-author of "Measuring Cyber Risk" (2021), examining the correlation between cybercrime and cybersecurity company performance.
• Tripier, F.: Co-author with Lhuissier on measuring cyber risk.
• Bouveret, A.: Author of "Cyber risk for the financial sector: A framework for quantitative assessment" (2018), focusing on financial institutions.
• Keppo, Jussi: Co-author of "Do Hacker Groups Pose a Risk to Organizations? Study on Financial Institutions Targeted by Hacktivists" (2021).
• Niemela, Mikko: Co-author with Keppo on the risk posed by hacker groups.
• Anderson, R.: Co-author of "Measuring the cost of cybercrime" (2013), highlighting challenges in data collection.
• Chen, S.: Co-author on papers regarding challenges in cyber incident data.
• Kigerl, A.: Author of "Cyber Crime Nation Typologies: K-Means Clustering of Countries Based on Cyber Crime Rates" (2016), on data limitations in developing countries.
• Howell, C.J.: Co-author of "Datasets for analysis of cybercrime" (2020), discussing under-reporting issues.
• Burruss, G.W.: Co-author with Howell on cybercrime datasets.
• Altalhi, S.: Co-author of "A survey on predictions of cyber-attacks utilizing real-time twitter tracing recognition" (2021), on new data collection methods.
• Gutub, A.: Co-author with Altalhi on using social media for cyber incident identification.
• Harry, C.: Co-author of "Classifying cyber events" (2018), contributing to cybersecurity definitions.
• Gallagher, N.: Co-author with Harry on classifying cyber events.
• Ho, H.T.N.: Co-author of "Research trends in cybercrime victimization during 2010–2020: a bibliometric analysis" (2022), discussing varying definitions of cyber incidents.
• Luong, H.T.: Co-author with Ho on research trends in cybercrime.
• Aldasoro, I.: Co-author of "Operational and cyber risks in the financial sector" (2020), discussing cyber incidents as operational risk events.
• Biener, C.: Lead author of "Insurability of cyber risk: An empirical analysis" (2015), providing a comprehensive definition of a cyber incident.

Organizations/Entities:

• World Bank: Funded the research for "A Review of the Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents" through its Cybersecurity Multi-Donor Trust Fund.
• Bogazici University: Selcen Cakir's affiliation.
• PwC: Cited for reports stressing the importance of understanding economic costs of cyber incidents.
• U.S. CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency): Emphasizes the crucial role of understanding cyber incident economic costs for decision-making.
• IC3 (Internet Crime Complaint Center): Cited for their annual reports on internet crime, though their methodologies are noted as limited.
• Norton: Cited for their 2017 "Cyber Security Insights Report Global Results."
• McAfee & CISS (Center for Strategic and International Studies): Cited for their 2018 "Economic Impact of Cybercrime Report."
• eSentire & Cybersecurity Ventures: Provide annual cybercrime reports with significant projections for economic costs.
• European Commission: Cited for estimates on global annual costs of cyber incidents and cybercrime definitions.
• IBM: Cited for their "Cost of a Data Breach Report" (2022), providing detailed analysis of breach costs.
• ITU (International Telecommunication Union): Cited for its 2021 "Global Cybersecurity Index" and data on cybersecurity legislation across regions.
• CGTN: Cited for information on cybersecurity protocols in African businesses.
• Interpol: Cited for reports on African cyber threats and cost estimates for cybercrime in specific African countries.
• Serianu: Kenyan IT cybersecurity firm mentioned for its research on cybercrime's impact on Africa's GDP.
• UK Cabinet Office: Cited for its 2011 report on the cost of cybercrime in the UK.
• Grant Thornton: Cited for its 2021 report on the economic cost of cybercrime in Ireland.
• Accenture & Ponemon Institute: Cited for their 2019 "Securing the Digital Economy Report."
• Privacy Rights Clearinghouse (PRC): A key open-source database in the U.S. providing data on disclosed cyber breaches.
• FIRST: An organization mentioned in Goldstein et al. (2011) as a data source.
• ORX: A confidential consortium data source for operational risks in financial institutions.
• Cybereason: Cited for their 2022 "Ransomware: The True Cost to Businesses" report.
• NetDiligence: Cited for their 2022 "Cyber Claims Study."
• Kaspersky Lab: Cited for "IT Security Economics Report" (2021) and "Damage Control: The Cost of Security Breaches" (2017).
• Symantec: Cited for their 2019 "Internet Security Threat Report."
• Willis Towers Watson: Cited for their 2020 "Cyber Claims Analysis Report."
• CheckPoint – Software Technologies LTD: Cited for their 2021 "Cybersecurity Report."
• World Economic Forum (WEF): Cited for reports ranking cyber incidents as a top operational risk and discussing cybersecurity investments.